Saturday, January 14, 2006

Ferguson: Remembering the Great War of 2007

As in the 1930s, ... the West fell back on wishful thinking. Perhaps, some said, Ahmadinejad was only sabre-rattling because his domestic position was so weak. Perhaps his political rivals in the Iranian clergy were on the point of getting rid of him. In that case, the last thing the West should do was to take a tough line; that would only bolster Ahmadinejad by inflaming Iranian popular feeling. So in Washington and in London people crossed their fingers, hoping for the deus ex machina of a home-grown regime change in Teheran....

The devastating nuclear exchange of August 2007 represented not only the failure of diplomacy, it marked the end of the oil age. Some even said it marked the twilight of the West. Certainly, that was one way of interpreting the subsequent spread of the conflict as Iraq's Shi'ite population overran the remaining American bases in their country and the Chinese threatened to intervene on the side of Teheran.

Yet the historian is bound to ask whether or not the true significance of the 2007-2011 war was to vindicate the Bush administration's original principle of pre-emption. For, if that principle had been adhered to in 2006, Iran's nuclear bid might have been thwarted at minimal cost. And the Great Gulf War might never have happened.

PREVIOUSLY: Time: Tough Line Will Only Bolster Ahmadinejad by Inflaming Popular Feeling

10 Comments:

Anonymous magnetism87 said...

first comment on Allah's new blog? Yay.

January 15, 2006 12:15 AM  
Anonymous magnetism87 said...

Doh! I am a tard. Should've looked at the front page first.

January 15, 2006 1:05 AM  
Blogger protein wisdom said...

Thanks for the tip, A --

Linked and discussed here.

January 15, 2006 1:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I preferred the other story - the pre-emptive one where Bush attacks Iran from the air, Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz, the world economy starts to sputter big time, Bush pulls troops out of Iraq to pacify southern Iran and reopen the straits, China gets upset at the threat to their Iranian oil and doesn't show up the next US treasury auction, and maybe sells a few of their T-bills, interest rates spike, and the US ecomomic house of cards collapses starting Great Depression II, then some Iranian agents smuggle in a dirty bomb hidden in a bale of marijuana ...

you can fill in the rest

Desmond22

January 15, 2006 3:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh if only we infidels would have listened to Allah... Allah has always confided in me that former US President GW's plan would have saved us all...

January 15, 2006 8:11 AM  
Blogger Alexandra said...

Allah,
Keep me posted with news on your blog via email. Thanks.

January 16, 2006 3:55 PM  
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