Thursday, January 12, 2006

Ahmadinejad Says "Great Event" Coming

"The Islamic revolution was a great leap in leading the people and reaching the climax of history", Ahmadinejad said.

MORE: Debka: Iranian DM Threatens U.S.'s Arab Allies

MORE: Iran Organizes Conference on Holocaust

"We will invite those who believe in the imposed version as well as all those who have spent years of their lives in the study of documents related to the Holocaust and have come to the conclusion that the history books in schools and universities do not correspond to the truth," said Afzali....

In Iran, books by the English historian, David Irving, currently in custody in an Austrian jail after having been accused of denying the Holocaust, are very popular.

MORE: NYT Op-Ed: Iranian Brinksmanship

Ahmadinejad no doubt takes comfort in the knowledge that Shiite religious parties aligned with Iran are now the dominant political forces in Iraq, while the American public hardly seems amenable to waging another war in the region....

The new president also surely knows that even if Iran's nuclear dossier were referred to the UN Security Council, meaningful multilateral sanctions would most likely be vetoed by Russia or China. Iran has become a major purchaser of Russian technology, and China has quickly emerged as one of Iran's largest trading partners.

Given this favorable strategic picture, Ahmadinejad might even welcome an American or Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Tehran could then retaliate against American and Israeli interests by mobilizing its Shiite allies in Iraq, the Gulf countries and Lebanon - or even by making common cause with some Sunni rivals.

All the while, Ahmadinejad's faction in government would make full use of the war footing to marginalize its rivals at home and crush the remnants of Iran's civil society....

But the Iranian regime is not invulnerable, and Washington knows this. Just as Iran can use the Shiite card to create mischief in the region, the United States could manipulate ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iran, which has significant, largely Sunni, minority populations along its borders....

Furthermore, the plummeting Iranian economy will only worsen if the United States succeeds in referring Iran's nuclear file to the Security Council, whether or not meaningful sanctions follow.

PREVIOUSLY: Iran Tries to Buy More Time from Annan

PREVIOUSLY: UPI: Iran -- What If?

PREVIOUSLY: WaPo: Russia Won't Block Iran Referral to UNSC

PREVIOUSLY: IAF Says Iran Ramping Up Air Defenses


Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're making Ace nervous.

January 12, 2006 9:33 PM  

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